The Government is expected to announce changes to the UK’s electric vehicle (EV) sales targets this week, with reports suggesting manufacturers could be given greater flexibility over the pace of the transition towards zero-emission cars and vans.
The potential changes follow a review of the Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) mandate, which requires vehicle manufacturers to increase the proportion of new vehicles they sell that produce no tailpipe emissions each year.
Under the existing framework, 80% of new car sales must be zero-emission by 2030, rising to 100% by 2035. The Government has previously maintained that these longer-term commitments will remain in place, despite growing pressure from parts of the automotive industry to reconsider the pace of the transition.
The issue has already attracted considerable attention across the UK automotive sector, with previous discussions about the future of the UK’s ZEV mandate and electric vehicle targets.
What Could Change Under The ZEV Mandate?
The current ZEV mandate sets progressively higher annual sales requirements for manufacturers, covering both cars and light commercial vehicles.
For new cars, the required proportion of zero-emission sales stands at 33% in 2026. This is scheduled to increase to 38% in 2027, 52% in 2028 and 66% in 2029, before reaching 80% in 2030.
The targets for vans follow a separate timetable, with manufacturers required to achieve a 24% zero-emission sales share in 2026. This increases to 34% in 2027, 46% in 2028, 58% in 2029 and 70% in 2030, before reaching 100% in 2035.
The Department for Transport (DfT) began reviewing the mandate on 14 August, opening the possibility of adjusting the annual requirements to reflect market conditions and the challenges facing vehicle manufacturers.
Reports now suggest ministers are considering reducing the 2030 electric car sales requirement by approximately a quarter. However, the precise level of any revised target has yet to be confirmed.
Potential Extension Of ZEV Mandate Flexibilities Until 2034
Alongside a possible reduction in the headline sales targets, the Government is also reportedly considering extending the compliance flexibilities available to vehicle manufacturers until 2034.
These mechanisms allow manufacturers to manage shortfalls against their annual zero-emission vehicle requirements through measures such as borrowing allowances from future years, trading credits and other permitted adjustments.
Extending these arrangements would give manufacturers additional time to meet their obligations, particularly where electric vehicle demand remains below the levels required by the mandate.
However, the proposals remain subject to the Government’s final decision. Until formal changes are announced, manufacturers must continue working within the existing ZEV mandate framework.
Earlier discussions indicated that manufacturers were pushing for a 50% target by 2030, while the Government was reportedly considering a more ambitious figure of around 60%. The possibility of further changes has also prompted calls from vehicle manufacturers for a more flexible approach. Ford has previously called for a review of the ZEV mandate as concerns grow over the targets and the pace of the transition.
The debate has also prompted wider industry criticism, with fleet organisations calling for more realistic ZEV mandate targets that better reflect current market conditions.
Electric Van Targets Also Facing Potential Changes
The proposed review is not limited to passenger cars. Electric van sales requirements are also expected to come under scrutiny, with reports suggesting that the Government could reduce the 2030 targets for light commercial vehicles.
Under the existing ZEV mandate, manufacturers must achieve a 70% zero-emission van sales share by 2030, compared with 80% for cars. However, electric van adoption continues to lag behind the required levels, creating additional pressure for manufacturers operating in the commercial vehicle market.
The challenges are particularly significant for businesses running commercial fleets, where payload capacity, driving range, vehicle suitability and access to charging facilities can all influence whether an electric van is a practical replacement for a diesel model.
Any reduction in the targets could give manufacturers more time to develop their electric van ranges and address these operational challenges. However, the precise changes to the van requirements have yet to be confirmed.
Any changes would therefore represent a significant adjustment to the current timetable, although the wider commitment to ending sales of new cars powered solely by petrol and diesel engines by 2030 is expected to remain.
The review follows wider industry calls for changes to the existing framework, including concerns about whether manufacturers can realistically achieve the required sales proportions. Manufacturers have already raised concerns about the difficulty of meeting the existing requirements, with some calling for greater flexibility in the targets. Read more about the challenges manufacturers face in meeting ZEV mandate targets.
These issues are explored further in our coverage of the 2026 ZEV mandate review.
The National Franchised Dealers Association (NFDA) has also called for a more gradual transition, proposing that zero-emission vans account for 40% of new van sales by 2030, compared with the current 70% target. Its proposals also include reducing the equivalent car target to between 50% and 60%. The NFDA argues that revised targets would better reflect current consumer demand, vehicle availability and the practical challenges facing businesses. Read our report on the NFDA’s proposed changes to 2030 ZEV mandate targets for cars and vans.
Government Maintains Commitment To The Electric Transition
Despite speculation about a reduction in annual sales requirements, the Government has reiterated that its longer-term objectives have not changed.
A Government spokesperson said that no final decisions had been made and reaffirmed the commitment to phasing out new cars relying exclusively on petrol and diesel engines by 2030, alongside the target for all new car and van sales to be zero-emission by 2035. Consumer attitudes towards the transition also remain mixed, with research suggesting that the planned 2030 petrol and diesel phase-out is influencing some motorists’ purchasing decisions, while others remain undecided about switching to electric or hybrid vehicles.
Our research into UK car buyers’ electric and hybrid vehicle purchasing intentions ahead of 2030 examines these changing attitudes.
The spokesperson also emphasised that the ZEV mandate consultation was intended to establish a practical and balanced approach to the transition, rather than undermine the country’s wider net zero commitments.
There are understood to be differing views within Government about how ambitious the revised targets should be. While some departments are concerned about the pressures placed on vehicle manufacturers, others want to maintain stronger requirements to keep the UK on course to meet its climate objectives. The implications are particularly significant for commercial vehicle manufacturers, given the separate timetable for electric van sales. Industry concerns about the 2030 electric van targets underline the difficulties of increasing zero-emission vehicle adoption across the commercial sector.
The debate reflects wider uncertainty about the pace of the UK’s transition to electric vehicles, particularly as motorists and businesses continue to weigh up affordability, vehicle suitability and charging availability.
Industry Divided Over Potential Target Reductions
The prospect of relaxing the ZEV mandate has prompted contrasting responses from businesses involved in the electric vehicle market.
Delvin Lane, chief executive of charging network operator InstaVolt, said it was important to wait for the Government’s formal proposals before drawing conclusions.
He acknowledged the need to balance the protection of automotive manufacturing jobs with the continued development of the electric vehicle market. However, he argued that charging infrastructure should not be used as justification for weakening sales requirements.
Lane highlighted ongoing investment in public charging facilities, suggesting that infrastructure development is progressing ahead of schedule and that the network is increasingly capable of supporting greater EV adoption.
He also pointed to October’s registration figures, which showed that almost one in three new cars sold was fully electric.
His comments reflect concerns that repeatedly changing Government policy could create uncertainty for businesses investing in charging infrastructure and the wider electric vehicle supply chain.
The expansion of charging facilities remains an important part of the transition, with our article on the growth of the UK’s electric vehicle charging network examining developments in public charging provision.
Thom Groot, chief executive of The Electric Car Scheme, was more critical of the prospect of reducing the targets. Salary sacrifice schemes are becoming an increasingly important route into electric car ownership, with electric vehicle salary sacrifice arrangements continuing to benefit from favourable company car tax treatment. The Government’s confirmation of company car Benefit-in-Kind rates through to 2030/31 also provides greater certainty for employers and employees considering electric vehicle schemes.
He argued that weakening the mandate could undermine progress at a time when consumer interest in electric vehicles is increasing. Groot also reported that demand for new EVs through salary sacrifice schemes had doubled over the previous year.
He believes manufacturers and consumers need consistent long-term policies to support purchasing decisions and investment, rather than changes to targets that could slow the transition.
He also called for greater emphasis on measures that make electric vehicles more accessible, including innovation and incentives to encourage wider adoption.
Leasing Industry Raises Concerns Over ZEV Mandate Pressures
The British Vehicle Rental & Leasing Association (BVRLA) has also raised concerns about the impact of the ZEV mandate on its members, particularly as businesses navigate the financial and operational challenges of transitioning their fleets.
While rental and leasing companies recognise the importance of reducing vehicle emissions, the pace of the transition presents challenges around electric vehicle demand, residual values and customer confidence.
For leasing providers, vehicle residual values are particularly important when calculating future rental costs. Uncertainty surrounding the second-hand electric vehicle market can make it more difficult to assess depreciation and establish competitive leasing rates.
The BVRLA has highlighted the pressures facing its members, with commercial vans presenting some of the greatest difficulties because of their varied working requirements and the practical limitations that can affect electric vehicle adoption.
This adds another dimension to the debate. Any changes to the mandate will need to consider not only manufacturers’ sales requirements, but also the wider leasing market and the businesses relying on vehicles to operate.
Electric Car And Van Sales Continue To Increase
The debate surrounding the ZEV mandate comes as electric vehicle registrations continue to grow across the UK, although current market performance remains below the Government’s annual requirements.
The latest figures from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) show that battery electric vehicle (BEV) registrations increased by 32.7% in October, accounting for 32% of the new car market.
Plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) registrations also recorded growth, rising by 30.1% to represent a 15% market share.
More than 503,800 fully electric cars have been registered during 2026 so far, representing an increase of 30.4% compared with the same period last year. The wider market is also experiencing continued growth, with UK electric vehicle sales reaching record levels as manufacturers expand their electric model ranges.
Despite this progress, the SMMT expects battery electric vehicles to account for approximately 27.2% of new car registrations across the full year, below the current ZEV mandate requirement of 33%.
The figures form part of a changing new-car market, where electric models are becoming increasingly prominent. Our coverage of UK new car registrations in 2026 looks at the wider registration trends affecting manufacturers and fleet operators.
The position is more challenging for the commercial vehicle sector.
Fully electric light commercial vehicle registrations increased by 58% in October, reaching 3,369 units. However, this represented just 12.9% of the new van market, considerably below the 24% target currently required under the mandate.
Across the year so far, fully electric vans have achieved an 11% market share.
The figures underline the difficulties facing manufacturers as they attempt to increase electric van sales. Our report on electric van registrations remaining behind ZEV targets examines the gap between commercial vehicle adoption and the Government’s requirements.
For businesses operating commercial fleets, these figures highlight the difference between growing interest in electric vans and the rate at which operators are currently making the transition.
Vehicle suitability, purchase and leasing costs, payload requirements, operating range and access to charging facilities all remain important considerations when assessing whether an electric van is appropriate for business use.
Our guide to electric van adoption among UK business fleets explores some of the practical considerations influencing businesses as they evaluate their electrification plans.
Concerns Over Long-Term Investment And Market Confidence
The gap between current registrations and the Government’s targets has also attracted attention from industry analysts.
Aleksandra O’Donovan, head of electrified transport at BloombergNEF, said the latest figures demonstrate continued progress in EV adoption, although manufacturers are still facing a considerable challenge in meeting the existing requirements.
BloombergNEF forecasts that electric vehicles could account for 67% of UK new car sales by 2030. While this would represent substantial growth, it would remain below the current Government target of 80%.
Vehicle affordability is another factor influencing adoption. According to O’Donovan, electric cars remain approximately 17% more expensive than their petrol equivalents, although falling battery costs and the introduction of more affordable models are helping to improve accessibility. However, the price difference is not the only consideration for buyers. Running costs, charging access and the availability of more affordable models all influence the overall cost of ownership. Our article on whether electric vehicles are becoming cheaper than petrol cars examines the changing affordability picture.
Greater flexibility within the ZEV mandate could provide manufacturers with additional breathing space as they adapt their product ranges and production strategies.
However, there are concerns that repeated adjustments to Government policy could make it harder for manufacturers, charging operators and other businesses to plan long-term investments with confidence. Investment in the wider supply chain is also important to the UK’s transition, including investment in electric vehicle battery manufacturing, which will help shape the country’s longer-term automotive capabilities.
For businesses considering the move to electric commercial vehicles, the financial and operational implications will remain important regardless of any changes to the mandate. CVC’s electric van leasing options provide a starting point for comparing available vehicles and considering whether an electric model is suitable for their requirements.
With the Government expected to clarify its position this week, the automotive industry will be looking for greater certainty over the future direction of the UK’s electric vehicle transition.
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